Sanctions and Tariffs Top the Risk List
Rising economic conflict between major powers is now seen as the greatest threat to global stability, according to the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026. The report, released ahead of the WEF’s annual Davos meeting, ranks “geoeconomic confrontation” — the use of sanctions, tariffs and trade restrictions — above misinformation, social division, extreme weather and even armed conflict as the most serious global risk for the coming year.
The findings are based on insights from more than 1,300 experts and leaders across business, government, academia and civil society. Half of respondents expect the world to face turbulent or stormy conditions over the next two years, a sharp rise from last year’s survey. Only a small minority believe global stability is on the horizon.
WEF Managing Director Saadia Zahidi described the report as an early warning system, saying that competition between nations, unchecked technology and rising debt are reshaping the world’s ability to manage shared challenges. However, she stressed that none of these risks are inevitable if cooperation improves.
A Fragmented World Economy
Eighteen percent of those surveyed identified geoeconomic confrontation as the most likely trigger for a global crisis in 2026. It also ranked as the most severe risk over the next two years. State-based armed conflict followed behind, reflecting fears that political and economic rivalries are becoming increasingly intertwined.
The report points to growing trade disputes and protectionist policies as major destabilising forces. Recent tariff expansions and aggressive trade measures — particularly from the United States — have disrupted global supply chains, increased costs for businesses and consumers, and strained international relations.
Looking ahead, 68% of respondents expect a multipolar or fragmented world order over the next decade. Economic risks such as inflation, downturns, rising debt and potential asset bubbles have all climbed sharply in the rankings, raising concerns that financial instability could accompany political tensions.
Technology, Society and the Climate Squeeze
After economic confrontation, misinformation and disinformation ranked as the second-largest short-term risk, followed closely by societal polarisation. Cyber insecurity also remains a major concern as digital systems grow more central to everyday life.
Artificial intelligence saw one of the biggest jumps in perceived long-term risk. Concerns over AI’s impact on jobs, security and social structures pushed it near the top of the 10-year outlook. Inequality continues to be viewed as a deeply interconnected risk, influencing economic, political and social stability.
Environmental threats dropped slightly in short-term rankings as immediate political and economic concerns dominate attention. However, over the next decade, extreme weather, biodiversity loss and critical changes to Earth’s systems are still seen as the most severe long-term dangers. Three-quarters of respondents expect environmental conditions to worsen significantly.
The WEF concludes that the scale of overlapping risks — from geopolitical shocks to technological disruption and climate instability — highlights the urgent need for global cooperation, warning that without it, the world faces a far more volatile future.
