Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are increasing crude oil exports as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz recovers. Both countries are seeking to regain customers and market share lost during the Iran war.
Data from analytics firm Kpler showed that crude oil shipments through the key waterway averaged 12 million barrels per day over the two weeks before October 8. This was about 80% of the level recorded before the war.
Total Middle Eastern crude exports also showed signs of recovery. Shipments exceeded the pre-war average of 18 million barrels per day for much of the week ending October 3. The total included oil sent through alternative export routes.
The recovery is important for two of the world’s major oil producers. Both countries faced shipping challenges during the conflict and had to change how they moved crude to global markets.
The UAE has maintained strong export volumes despite the disruption. Kpler data showed that the country exported an average of 3.3 million barrels per day from June onward. This was broadly in line with its pre-war export level.
UAE oil production averaged about 4.2 million barrels per day over the same period. That was higher than its pre-war average of 3.9 million barrels per day.
The figures suggest that the UAE has been able to maintain production while restoring shipments to international buyers. However, changes in shipping routes and market demand continue to affect how much oil reaches different customers.
Saudi Arabia faced a different set of challenges after the conflict began. The kingdom initially redirected large volumes of crude to Yanbu, a port on the Red Sea. This route helped it avoid relying entirely on the Strait of Hormuz.
Even with that change, Saudi exports remained near 60% of their pre-war levels during much of the conflict, according to the data.
The alternative route later faced new problems. Attacks on the East-West pipeline in September disrupted the kingdom’s export strategy. Houthi attacks affecting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait also created further challenges for shipments moving through the Red Sea region.
These disruptions pushed Saudi Arabia to send more oil through the Strait of Hormuz. The change helped increase export volumes as traffic through the waterway improved.
Saudi crude exports averaged about 7.3 million barrels per day during the three weeks before the October 8 report. That figure brought exports close to the levels seen before the war.
However, the outlook for Saudi production remains more limited. Production is expected to average 7.4 million barrels per day in October, about 75% of its pre-war level.
The lower forecast reflects reduced domestic refining capacity after strikes damaged processing facilities. This has limited the kingdom’s ability to return production fully to its earlier level.
The disruption has also affected the two countries’ positions in Asia, a major market for Middle Eastern crude. Saudi Arabia’s share of Asian oil imports dropped sharply during the conflict.
Based on calculations using Kpler data, Saudi Arabia supplied 24% of Asian crude imports in February. Its share fell to a record low of 9% in September.
That figure is expected to rise to around 14% in October as exports recover. Even with the expected improvement, the share would remain below its February level.
The UAE has also seen a decline in its share of Asian imports. Its portion fell from 13% in February to about 12% in October.
The figures show that recovering export volumes do not automatically restore lost market share. Buyers may have turned to other suppliers during the conflict, and winning those customers back could take time.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a vital route for global energy trade. Any disruption can affect the movement of large amounts of crude oil and create uncertainty for producers, shipping companies and buyers.
For Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the latest figures point to a gradual return toward normal export activity. Yet damage to energy infrastructure, security risks along shipping routes and changes in buyer demand continue to shape the recovery.
Both countries are now working to restore their positions in the global oil market. Their progress will depend on reliable shipping routes, production capacity and the ability to regain customers who relied on other suppliers during the conflict.
